A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
